How likely is it for an end portal to already be "complete"?
We already know that in Minecraft 1.16, an end portal can generate with 12 eyes of ender already placed, such as in the seed -4530634556500121041. The odds of this are calculable: 0.1^12 = 1 / 1 trillion.
Recently the seed 2483313382402348964 which generates the following end portal was discovered:
For all practical purposes this is a complete portal, since it gives immediate access to the end. Then the actual odds of a "complete" portal are higher than 1 / 1 trillion. Do we have an estimate or actual value for the odds of a complete portal, including this case?
I've noticed that the completed part of the portal is in a different chunk than the rest of the portal, which is probably a hint as to why the generation happened like this.
Best Answer
80999999999980000000000003999999999999/64000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000
or 1.265624999999687500000000062499999999984375 / 1 Trillion
assuming that if portal crosses chunk boundary, it has more chances to be complete, but in every chunk is still needs 12 successes and my calculations are correct.
if portal blocks only care about frame blocks that actually exist in the chunk, my previous answer applies:
198601793977/1024000000000000 or 0.01939470644306640625%
if my calculations are correct.
considering only that 1x1 corner, it needs:
- that vertical chunk border is inside the portal (2 of 16 possible positions, assuming portal is equally likely to spawn anywhere, assumption not checked)
- same for horizontal
- that vertically touching frame be filled (1 of 10 chance)
- same for horizontally
so assuming those are independent (should be) we get (2/16)^2*(1/10)^2=1/6400=0.015625%; analyzing other possibilities for portal does increase chance, but only a bit.
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How rare is it for a end portal to be already lit?
We already know that in Minecraft 1.16, an end portal can generate with 12 eyes of ender already placed, such as in the seed -4530634556500121041. The odds of this are calculable: 0.1^12 = 1 / 1 trillion.Is it possible for a end portal to spawn full?
There is a one in a trillion chance that an end portal will spawn fully filled.What are the chances of a 7 Eye portal?
Wouldn't it be 1/10.000. 000 cause there is 7 eyes and a 10% for each one meaning the first one starts as 1/10. Probability isn't that simple, you are calculating that exact arrangement, not just the 7 eyes.How rare is an end portal with all eyes?
This seed contains one of the rarest possible generations in all of Minecraft: an activated End Portal with all 12 eyes of ender already placed. YouTuber ibxtoycat explains in the video above that this seed had about a one in a trillion probability of happening.More answers regarding how likely is it for an end portal to already be "complete"?
Answer 2
I assume that you would have to account for all possible ways a corner can be separated by a chunk and also have no empty eye slots. That would mean a 2 by 2 and a 1 by 1 in any of the 4 corners, so 8 different portal configuration, plus 1 for the 3 by 3 configurations. That would increase the number of "completed" portals to 9. Meaning the chance would go from 1/1 trillion to 9/1 trillion. That would mean that, in practice, the probability of a "completed" portal is essentially the same. Of course, that is without including the probability that a chunk separates a single corner like it has in the seed you show. I assume that would actually decrease the probability to below 9/1 trillion. Another thing that may have to be looked at is whether a glitched 1 by 2, 1 by 3, or 2 by 3 portals can occur. I did not include that as it cannot be confirmed without finding a seed, but it would only increase the probability to 25/1 trillion anyways, so still basically inconsequential. Don't quote me on any of this though, cause the math might be more complex than I am assuming it is. I spent way to much time on this, but I hope that helps.
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